Where is the austin market headed?

For almost two years, the Austin housing market has been a study in restraint. While other cities have swung between frenzy and fatigue, our prices have stayed remarkably steady. They have neither leapt nor collapsed. Instead, they have settled into a rare equilibrium that gives both buyers and sellers something valuable — the ability to make decisions without the shadow of volatility.

In July, the median sale price landed at $425,000, down just 2.3 percent from a year ago. The average sale price edged slightly higher to $565,704. The average price per square foot eased to $254, a modest retreat from last summer. Months of supply rose to 5.3 — the highest we have seen in two years — while average days on market stretched to 72.5 days across the metro, up from 64.7 last year. This is the portrait of a market in balance, but with subtle shifts under the surface.

the pulse beneath the calm

Markets are more than their price tags. They are a living rhythm of supply and demand, of human behavior and economic influence. In July, that rhythm changed just enough to make us take notice.

Closed sales reached 2,879, marking a 9.6 percent year-over-year decline. Yet pending contracts — one of the clearest forward-looking indicators we track — rose 9 percent. This tells us demand is quietly rebuilding, even as the calendar turns toward the slower months of late summer and the holiday season.

Buyers are taking their time. Homes are lingering a little longer before going under contract. The pace has eased, creating space for conversations, second showings, and thoughtful negotiation.

Supply Steps Forward

While demand is improving, supply is moving faster. New listings climbed 13 percent in July compared to last year, giving buyers more choice and sellers more competition. Months of inventory rose from 4.5 to 5.3. This is not an oversupply, but it does shift leverage slightly toward buyers, especially in slower sub-markets.

For sellers, this means strategy matters more than ever. The right pricing, the right presentation, and the right positioning are the difference between sitting on the market and securing a contract.

beyond the numbers

Outside the MLS, the broader economic picture is sending mixed signals. Consumer sentiment, which faltered in the spring due to tariff concerns, bounced back in June and July, though it has yet to return to early-year highs. July’s weaker jobs report has market watchers expecting three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, with the first likely in September. Mortgage rates reacted swiftly, dipping just over 6.5 percent — a move that could help pull more buyers off the sidelines as we move into fall.

Reading the Room

For buyers, the landscape is favorable. There is more inventory than at any time in the last two years, pricing has been stable, and interest rates just nudged lower. Negotiation is back on the table, and in many sub-markets, bidding wars are a thing of the past.

For sellers, timing and precision are everything. Overpricing in a softening season can cost both momentum and money. If you can wait until spring 2026, the natural seasonal rhythm of the market may reward you. If selling now is essential, lean into preparation and meet the market where it is — not where it was.